Champagne Velvet

The Real Cause of Blackouts - Mises Institute

Just think about this general principle. When some good or service is in high demand, and economically feasible to deliver to those who demand it, and it is not being delivered in a way that is consistent with consumer welfare, you can bet that the state is involved. Get the state out of it, and you will see the dawning of an era without fear of blackouts.

The lack of competition gives the power companies no motivation to change after this blackout in Queens or the blackout of August 2003. Add competition and innovation would take place, prices would come down and service would improve. Simple.

Hubbert’s Peak, Current Events

In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005.

I’ve been fascinated by peak oil theory / Hubbert’s Peak since oil hit $40 per barrel. If Kenneth Deffeyes is right AND we either invade or embargo Iran, the superspike will come true sooner rather than later.  The inflation that resulted would drive up long term interest rates and the recession would drive down short term rates eliminating the flat or inverted yield curve we have now.  The real variable would be how Asian central banks (Japan, China, South Korea) would react.

April:

• Work at Pantheon continues positively and Jim starts openly questioning my move to China, saying that there’s plenty of money to be made in New York (true) and that the company is clearly on the rise (also true).
• I have an interesting dinner with John Probandt, discussing the way he’s done business there, aspects of Chinese culture, my plans, and the possibility of working together on projects there - I recommend Del Frisco’s.
• Great first Seder at cousin Paula’s house. It’s good to get a bigger group of the family together than usual.
• Great second Seder at Jim’s house where they’re slightly more reform than we are, in a good way.
• Elsewhere,
• Peter Jennings hosts his last World News Tonight;
• Pope John Paul II dies; and
• Airbus’s superjumbo, the A380 - the largest passenger plane in the world, makes its debut test flight.

May:

• Jim continues to try to convince me not to go to China, to stay at Pantheon, and finally makes me an offer I couldn’t refuse. I will stay at Pantheon but continue to seek development and acquisition opportunities in China with trips out every two months or so… at least that is the plan.
• I see Star Wars: Episode III at a 4:40am show in Times Square - it doesn’t disappoint but by the time we’re done with breakfast at Blue Fin, I’m a few minutes late for work despite getting up at 3am. The film has a record opening day gross of $50mm.
• Ken, Jim, and I represent Pantheon at ICSC in Las Vegas - a fantastic trip, meet a ton of great people and have a great time.
• Elsewhere,
• The Downing Street Memo is first published and shown to the public - the document is an internal British government memo explaining their belief that the Bush Administration has sought a way to justify a war in Iraq to the U.S. population and the world since before it entered office;
• Lenovo acquires IBM’s PC business - the Chinese start their assault on U.S. brand names as they attempt (and succeed at) going up the profitability curve from manufacturer to design and retailing;
• North Korea fires another test missile into the Sea of Japan - a country displays a continuing weapons program but talk of war by the U.S. is extremely soft compared to that towards Iraq in 2003;
• My Miami Heat, led by Dwyane Wade, sweep the Washington Wizards and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals where they face the Detroit Pistons; with both Shaq and Wade hurt, the Pistons take the final two games of the series to advance to the NBA Finals;
• Danica Patrick races in the Indy 500 and comes in fourth after leading the race several times; and
• W. Mark Felt, former FBI agent, admits to being Deep Throat.

June:

• I start off the month with my first due diligence trip to Santa Fe, New Mexico. The property looks all right but the deal doesn’t. Santa Fe was great and I look forward to going back.
• From Santa Fe, I go for a quick visit to Rancho Palos Verdes to see Chaz. He doesn’t move much, his neck is locked in place with a hard collar and he can barely move his right arm but it’s good to see him.
• The Annual Weekend of Burgers and Beer is, as usual, a success. Jon Wanderer, Chris Szczepanski, Matt Marinzoli and I go back to Matt’s house in Barnegat, NJ. [reminder not to bring more than one change of clothes next year because they’re worthless.]
• Elsewhere,
• Apple announces that it will switch to Intel CPU’s from IBM - after bluffing this move for a long time, it came as a small surprise to me and I think it will be interesting to see its effects over the coming years;
• Michael Jackson is found not guilty on all counts - and so was O.J. I have to admit we did take a break to watch on TV from work; and
• The U.S. Supreme Court decides in favor of MGM in the MGM v Grokster trial - this is bad news for innovation and innovators.